Every Point Above Your Breakeven Is Worth About $795

$795

per point above the breakeven · rounds 3–25

Beat your breakeven by one point and your price rises by about $795. Miss it by one and it falls by about the same. The relationship is linear in both directions across the whole range we measured — there is no acceleration for a big score and no cliff for a bad one. A player who beats his breakeven by twenty points earns twenty times the rise of one who beats it by a single point, and nothing more.

That linearity is worth saying out loud, because it is not obvious. Price movement is often described as though a huge score is rewarded disproportionately. Across 2,845 player-rounds inside 25 points either side of the breakeven, it is not. The line is straight.

This is a rate, not a guarantee. The published breakeven is not the exact zero line of the move it governs: it is computed with the current round's ratio while describing the next round's, and sits a mean 2.1 points away from it. Of the 194 players who scored within a point of their published breakeven, 97.4% moved in price anyway. Meeting the number SuperCoach publishes does not reliably hold a price still.

Prices also move in $100 steps, so every figure here is granular to $100. Treat any single number as the nearest $100, not as cents.

This is our measurement, taken across the whole field rather than a sample: 5,324 eligible player-rounds from 419 players, rounds 3 to 25. It drifts by a couple of per cent across a season, which is why we derive it from live rows each time this page is built rather than writing a number down.

How to read it

Your breakeven is the score SuperCoach says you need to hold your price. What it does not tell you is what the points either side of it are worth. That is the conversion below.

Breakeven50

He scores60

Points above10

Expected rise+$7,954

A hypothetical breakeven, not a player: applying the rate to a named player is a projection about that player, which is a different thing from a field-wide rate and is not what this page publishes.

Read it as a rate of exchange, not a promise. It tells you what a point is worth on average across the field — not what one player's price will do next week.

Fig. 1 — Every priced player-round, 25 points either side of the breakeven

Each dot is one player in one round: how far his score landed above or below his published breakeven, against what his price actually did going into the next round. The straight red line is the published rate of $795 a point, drawn over the cloud rather than fitted to it separately — if the rate did not describe the data, this is where you would see it.

Player-round (2,845 plotted) The published rate

The cloud is striped vertically because scores are whole points: every column is one point of margin. Prices are quantised too, in $100 steps, though against a sixty-thousand-dollar axis that is finer than a pixel and you will not see it here. Every eligible player-round in the window is plotted — nothing is sampled or thinned. — Source: THESCIP Data Desk, R25

Every Point Above Your Breakeven Is Worth About $795.