The Data Desk · Season Scorecard

The 2026 Scorecard

The accuracy ledger, read whole: every call our models and the tracked commentators logged across the 2026 season — rounds 1–27, preseason calls included — graded against what actually happened. Corrections stay visible, populations are stated, and what could never be graded is counted rather than buried.

As at 19 Sep 2026 · Season 2026 · Vol. 1

The price model, all season

49.9%

read the direction of 2,319 price moves (up, flat or down) · average miss $27.4K · 2,546 withdrawn — better than guessing, though not by a margin worth leaning on.

Best score model

18.7 pts

THESCIP Score Model (XGBoost) average miss over 4,895 graded projections, of which 2,510 were players who did not play — graded as misses by ruling, no error recorded.

The commentator field

24.6%

of 15,499 graded 2026 calls landed — buys, sells and captain picks pooled, neutral verdicts counted as non-hits. This is the current figure, recomputed from the ledger on every read.

The engines

Our own predictors, one line per published record. A line below the 20-call bar shows its counts and no rate — the same bar the commentators are held to. Trade lines cover only calls whose full 3-round grading window was played and closed; grades the window rule excludes are counted in the final column, not hidden.

Predictor	Graded	Hit rate	Avg miss	Withdrawn	Never gradeable	Pending	DNP misses	Short-window excl.
THESCIP Score Model (XGBoost)round-score projections	4,895	25.6%	18.7	429	914	0	2,510	0
THESCIP Price Modelprice-change calls	2,319	49.9%	$27.4K	2,546	564	0	0	0
THESCIP Scoring Engineround-score projections	2,050	11.9%	19.4	438	3,846	0	1,574	0
THESCIP Score Model (ridge)round-score projections	550	17.1%	28.2	4,962	43	0	281	0
THESCIP Trade Enginetrade-in calls	122	63.1%	21.1	14	57	59	0	65
THESCIP Two-Trade Plannertrade-out calls	15	below the 20-call bar		22	131	22	0	67
THESCIP H2H Captain Verdictcaptain picks	8	below the 20-call bar		0	3	0	1	0
THESCIP Trade Enginetrade-out calls	4	below the 20-call bar		0	100	39	0	27
THESCIP Two-Trade Plannertrade-in calls	4	below the 20-call bar		10	20	3	0	28
THESCIP Replay Enginecaptain picks	3	below the 20-call bar		0	0	0	0	0
THESCIP Replay Enginetrade-in calls	0	below the 20-call bar		0	0	0	0	2
THESCIP Replay Enginetrade-out calls	0	below the 20-call bar		0	0	1	0	1

Population: season 2026 ledger rows, active graded per line · hit-rate denominator = graded (a neutral verdict counts as a non-hit) · price average miss in dollars, all others in SC points · captain error measured from the recorded score against the 100-point bar.

The commentators · Trade-in calls

#	Commentator	Graded	Hit rate	Avg pts vs peer median	Short-window excl.
1	The NRL Supercoach BDE Podcast	243	34.6%	17.9	19
2	NRL Fantasy Amateurs	427	34.4%	19.3	86
3	NRL Physio	328	32.6%	—	26
4	Rugby League Guru	411	31.4%	20.2	46
5	NRL Fantasy with The Casual Athlete	738	28.7%	19.5	201
6	Talking League - NRL Fantasy Podcast	577	28.6%	20.1	92
7	Seven Tackle Set \| NRL Supercoach Podcast	495	28.5%	21.0	131
8	Ballr NRL SuperCoach	1,495	28.0%	21.1	187
9	SuperCoach Insight	465	27.1%	21.3	100
10	CODE Sports	477	26.6%	22.0	78
11	Aman Talks NRL SuperCoach	1,201	26.5%	21.9	203
12	NRL Fantasy Analysis	870	25.5%	18.5	191
13	The NRL Supercoach Therapy Podcast	358	25.4%	20.4	91
14	The SuperCoach NRL Podcast	251	24.3%	21.8	74
15	SC Playbook	905	24.0%	19.4	107
16	The Weekly Rub Down \| NRL SuperCoach	365	23.0%	19.8	141
17	Head to Head NRL Fantasy Podcast	128	21.9%	20.3	5
18	Jones and Stones Fantasy Podcast	169	20.7%	20.3	2

Population: 2026 trade-in calls graded on the ledger, one line per commentator (YouTube and podcast entries combined), shown from 20 graded calls · whole closed 3-round windows only · neutral verdicts count as non-hits · the points column averages the error distances the grader recorded; a dash means it recorded none.

The commentators · Trade-out calls

#	Commentator	Graded	Hit rate	Avg pts vs peer median	Short-window excl.
1	The SuperCoach NRL Podcast	111	25.2%	16.8	29
2	NRL Physio	167	24.0%	—	20
3	SC Playbook	278	23.0%	20.2	57
4	The Weekly Rub Down \| NRL SuperCoach	35	22.9%	25.5	16
5	Seven Tackle Set \| NRL Supercoach Podcast	294	22.4%	22.6	61
6	Aman Talks NRL SuperCoach	582	21.6%	20.1	105
7	Talking League - NRL Fantasy Podcast	301	21.3%	21.6	32
8	NRL Fantasy Amateurs	225	20.4%	15.7	22
9	Ballr NRL SuperCoach	756	19.8%	15.4	100
10	SuperCoach Insight	251	19.1%	21.1	49
11	NRL Fantasy with The Casual Athlete	420	18.8%	17.1	94
12	NRL Fantasy Analysis	339	17.1%	21.4	57
13	Rugby League Guru	172	16.9%	19.9	19
14	The NRL Supercoach Therapy Podcast	85	16.5%	13.2	23
15	Head to Head NRL Fantasy Podcast	32	15.6%	—	6
16	CODE Sports	205	15.1%	20.1	35
17	Jones and Stones Fantasy Podcast	53	13.2%	10.7	4
18	The NRL Supercoach BDE Podcast	63	12.7%	—	5

Population: 2026 trade-out calls graded on the ledger, one line per commentator (YouTube and podcast entries combined), shown from 20 graded calls · whole closed 3-round windows only · neutral verdicts count as non-hits · the points column averages the error distances the grader recorded; a dash means it recorded none.

The commentators · Captain picks

#	Commentator	Graded	Hit rate	Avg pts short of 100
1	The NRL Supercoach Therapy Podcast	40	30.0%	29.3
2	The SuperCoach NRL Podcast	55	27.3%	28.5
3	Rugby League Guru	54	25.9%	32.7
4	Ballr NRL SuperCoach	186	24.2%	32.7
5	Jones and Stones Fantasy Podcast	26	23.1%	27.3
6	CODE Sports	61	19.7%	32.8
7	SuperCoach Insight	67	19.4%	29.0
8	Head to Head NRL Fantasy Podcast	26	19.2%	28.0
9	NRL Fantasy with The Casual Athlete	92	18.5%	27.8
10	NRL Fantasy Amateurs	22	18.2%	24.1
11	Aman Talks NRL SuperCoach	168	17.9%	31.5
12	Talking League - NRL Fantasy Podcast	43	16.3%	34.1
13	Seven Tackle Set \| NRL Supercoach Podcast	81	16.0%	35.1
14	SC Playbook	111	14.4%	30.8
15	NRL Fantasy Analysis	73	13.7%	27.0
16	The Weekly Rub Down \| NRL SuperCoach	116	11.2%	35.2

Population: 2026 captain picks graded on the ledger, one line per commentator (YouTube and podcast entries combined), shown from 20 graded calls · neutral verdicts count as non-hits.

Provenance

Every figure on this page is recomputed from the prediction ledger on each read (last grade landed 19 Sep 2026), scoped to season 2026 only — including 1,179 graded preseason (round-0) calls, which count by ruling.

The read-time rules

Trade figures cover only calls whose full 3-round grading window was played and closed. Grades recorded on shorter windows are excluded and counted, per line.
Captain error is measured from the recorded score against the 100-point bar, never from the stored error column.
A call logged after its round locked out is never gradeable: it is counted, kept on the record, and graded as nothing.

Known edges

250 graded round-score actuals (rounds 22–26) were later restated by SuperCoach; the ledger keeps the grade as it stood when the round settled.
Withdrawn price calls — players who could not move by rule — stay counted beside the price record permanently; put back, the record would read 31.2% over 3,959 calls at $25.4K average miss.
Selection and vice-captain calls run in shadow mode and are ungraded by design; they appear nowhere on this page.

The live, round-by-round view is the Accuracy Ledger. · For entertainment purposes only · Legal & Disclaimers